Week One Candidates

I've narrowed down the first weekend slate a little bit. Remember, the idea here, particularly at the start of the season, is to find the matchups that look sure, surer, surest, and surest-est. The Vegas (click to experience the rush of Vegas night life, ooooh!) line is going to be set and reset to keep the cash flowing. We're looking for teams that are going to outperform expectations. Without a published line to evaluate, I'm guessing at what's going to meet our criteria. Here's eight matchups:

Central Arkansas @ Hawaii--the Rainbows make a living bringing mainlanders to the Islands. What's more mainland than Conway, Arkansas?

Montana State University @ Michigan State University--Michigan State has been improving the last couple seasons, and Montana State is...the other MSU. To give you and idea of the difference between these two, Montana State will return home to play powerhouse Dixie State the following weekend.

Navy @ Ohio State--Tressel's crew will win. The size of the spread will tell us if there's any stars to spend.

Akron @ Penn State--Joe Paterno is back for his 99th season as head coach, and the Zips will be the first victim in Happy Valley. We frequently back the Zips, but this one is a step up in class beyond their ability.

Charleston Southern @ Florida--we'll know when the spread comes out, but this one looks like it could garner the four stars for the first week. Charleston Southern?

Wofford @ South Florida--not to be outdone, the Bulls are bringing Wofford to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, a pretty substantial difference from their little home field. I'm seeing stars here, and Wofford will, too.

Youngstown State @ Pittsburgh--we've been up and down with Dave Wannstedt's Pitt Panthers. Youngstown State is just here for a cup of coffee, then it's back to Ohio.

Western Michigan @ Michigan--Rich Rod needs the Wolverines to perform in order to appease a cranky fan base, still grumpy in the wake of last year's worst ever record. Western Michigan fields a pretty darn good football team. I am way eager to see the line on this one.

Spreads will be out shortly. Can't wait!

Equal Opportunity

Waiting for the opening week of action, I wonder how many women bet on football? Or bet on sports in general?

The first response from most guys is likely to be "none". I think the reality is that there are plenty of women plunking down some cash on games, either directly or through a male counterpart.

At this juncture, you are asking (if I have properly presented the proposition) "why do you so think, your authorship?"

I first present the visual evidence of Wonder Woman, standing victorious over the disembodied but still helmeted skull of her bookie in pre-internet days.

If that is not sufficiently persuasive, allow me to present the cases of two real life wagering examples. First, Mrs. PFOS. While she will deny this, indeed, she will likely vehemently deny this as she reads it, the fact is that she has wagered her share over the years, albeit primarily on NASCAR. That she displayed little aptitude for profitable wagering, primarily due to an unwavering loyalty to Dale Jarrett and Kenny Wallace, wagering on the one long after Jarrett's skills were eroded and the other based on the fact that Wallace is entertaining to listen to, did nothing to diminish the zeal Mrs. PFOS displayed in committing her (common law) cash.

I just invented that term, common law cash, feel free to use it.

Back at my proposition, Mrs. PFOS is frequently in my company and appears genuinely interested when I evaluate football and auto wagering results ( I would hate to think that she's been faking it all these years), and she is an inveterate Triple Crown bettor.

Case 2, your honor, involves some of the women in Two Gun Pete's life. Lady Two Gun has good naturedly assailed my character for years now, implying that it is I who am in some way responsible for showing Two Gun the wayward path of the wagering life. Yet I know that she is supportive of Two Gun's efforts, having been the gracious hostess of countless Sunday afternoon soirees at which a contest holding a financial implication was the joint main event, along with dinner. Further, her highly successful offspring, a woman of advanced letters, no less, has also had a hand in furthering the nefarious enterprise in which her father and his father before him (and with him, and with me, for that matter) has spent many an excited and profit bearing moment.

Now, while my sample size is too small to scientifically conclude that I am correct, even were the case to be heard on my home court in County Crook, it is compelling that these women, being of sound minds and bodies, have a hand in the games. So, if they are partaking, so are many of the favored gender.

I would like to hear from the rest of the planet on this matter.

That is all.

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Check out this ESPN.com poll. Be sure to mouse over the individual states to see how they voted.

Looking to Week 1

There used to be a game in mid August called the Kickoff Classic, and one called the Pigskin Classic. They're history, gone. I saw Gary Barnett's Northwestern Wildcats beat Oklahoma 24-0 in the 1997 Pigskin Classic at Soldier Field. Great time.

The first game of the 2009 season is scheduled for Thursday, August 27, and it looks like a pass for us. Quincy College visits Indiana State. It's the only game of that calendar week . It's someone you know (barely, in this case) Indiana State, tuning up as the host against someone who is a prohibitive and relatively obscure underdog, D2 school Quincy. It's tough to figure how far this spread ought to be.

Week 1 gets rolling for real the following Thursday, September 3. There's a big selection of games to pick from, and they largely follow the "bring in a tomato can" (click for link) philosophy. There are a couple of high interest games, interesting from a competitive and entertainment standpoint, as opposed to what we're looking for--blowouts that beat the snot out of the spread. The entertainment specials include the Oregon Ducks visiting the blue turf of Boise State, the Stanford Cardinal heading up to Washington State, and on Labor Day night the Hurricanes of Miami square off against the Florida State Seminoles (that's their stadium at the right) in an intrastate battle. All great entertainment, but we won't be putting any cash up on these. There's some great mismatch opportunities for us to start.

Time to start looking through some numbers. For starters, take a look at 2008's final numbers (click to view), courtesy of Vegas Insider. Like the disclaimer on the investment commercials, past results are no guarantee of future performance. This worksheet will give you tons of information to ponder.

Get your butt groove on the couch, there are games Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday and Monday.

We have plenty of time to work on these. That starts next week.