Week 15

This is the end and this is the beginning.

Week 15 is the end of the regular season. There are just two games scheduled for Saturday, one we can handicap and one we'll take a s.w.a.g. at.  

This is the beginning of Bowl Season, and we'll attempt to analyze each contest and make an intelligent investment.  We live for these three weeks.  The posting schedule of Monday and Friday will be revised to the day before and the day after.  We have historically done pretty well at this time of year, and this year we need it, having ended the last three weeks with negatives.

This year debuted the Four Star system.  Two Gun Pete came up with the idea for the Four Star system, and it has worked.  Last year we picked 98 games and finished 48-48-2, about as profitable as a monkey flinging crap at random targets.  With the star system, we're +21 going into this weekend.  If you were playing them all along with us, you made money, and that's the purpose: fun and money. 

At the outset I said we'd stick to what we know, and for the most part we did that. What we've done correctly is easy to identify.  What we did wrong is partly the risk of the play and partly some bad decisions/habits.  Lessons learned:

1.  Don't fall in love with any team. 

We played some teams too much on reputation and not on current performance, kind of like the disclaimer that comes after the investment ads - past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Early LSU is an example.

2.  Be critical of the oddsmakers' choices; their job is to create action. 

Early season Texas and Penn State are examples of what I'm talking about.  They couldn't cover anything, so adjust.

3.  Critique your own trends. 

Big Mike pointed out that we were almost always betting favorites, true dat.  It cost us some money, all the way to the end (Texas v. Nebraska, case in point).

4.  Realize what you do well and do it. 

We do well with over/under plays,and we didn't play them frequently enough.  No excuse, just screwed up.

5.  Don't bet parlays based on initials, states, haircuts or mascots. 

We didn't publish any of them, but we played 'em, and they all lost.

6.  Don't bet it 'cause you want to make it happen

e.g.: Indiana sucked, and we couldn't make them not suck, despite betting on them and feeling bad for Bill Lynch.

7. Never

8. Never

 9. EVER

10.  ...bet on Notre Dame.

Never. 

Brian Kelly is going to abandon his 12-0, once in a lifetime Cincinatti Bearcats to go get his ass kicked in South Bend.  He and USB deserve each other. 

Brian Kelly : just another reason to hate Notre Dame.

We have two bets  one bet to make.

*Army @ Navy UNDER 41 1/2
Army's not too strong, and Navy played its best game a few months back against Ohio State.  Let's take our own advice and play O/U.  The weekend weather isn't likely to be too nice, either, suggesting tough playing conditions that can keep the scoring down.

The other game is Montana and Applachian State.  There's was no line, i.e. another lesson.  Stick with what you know, and nobody knows what's going to happen when these two lightly followed teams with their gaudy records square off.  Save your money for next week and enjoy Army/Navy.

Proverbs and Point Spreads

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.

For want of a shoe the horse was lost.

For want of a horse the rider was lost.

For want of a rider the battle was lost.

For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.

And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

There was no point spread to deal with when that proverb was penned.

Our investments weren't all that closely decided, but it was a Saturday thrillfest that featured the thinnest margins of victory and defeat.  One point differences made Texas and Cincinatti winners and the Illini a loser this day.  We at Four Star Football were down for a staggering third consecutive week.

'Bama beat up the Gators on Saturday afternoon, how 'bout that?  Florida looked overmatched, as the red shirts just kept coming all day long.  It was a great defensive performance by the Tide, and Florida appeared bewildered.  I admired the job that Alabama did, even as it cost me my Four Star Preseason wager, said wager being another SEC championship for Florida. Simply a great job by the new #1!

**** TEXAS -14 @ NEBRASKA LOSE
FINAL : TEXAS 13, NEBRASKA 12

When I was in college, I worked nights on the loading docks at the big UPS package sorting facility on Jefferson Street in Chicago.  It was an atmosphere that is best described in polite company as ribald.   One of my co-workers, a rotund, jovial black guy whose first name was Curtis and whose last name is somewhere in the many years between then and now, would prattle on, all night, every night, in a loud, bell clear voice, about whatever was on his mind, frequently repeating himself in a sing-song fashion. One of his favorites, voiced randomly, was 'you know what the people say, every dog has got his day'.  From all those years ago, Curtis' voice rang out in my mind, singing about the dogs,  around mid fourth quarter of this game Saturday night.  It had become evident early in the fourth quarter that we were not going to get a cover from the Longhorns. Nebraska brought an absolutely voracious, smothering defense to the Big 12 Championship game in Dallas.  Colt McCoy, Heismann Candidate, became Colt McCoy, run for your life or get thrown to the turf like a rag doll.  With Nebraska ahead and time running out, Colt McCoy rolled right and wasted precious seconds before throwing the ball away.  It required an official review to determine that there was one tick left on the clock, time enough for a 46 yard field goal attempt.  With a berth in the BCS on the line, Texas kicker Hunter Lawrence ascended to his 15 minutes of fame and knocked it through the wickets for a game winner and a trip to Pasadena.  It will have to be another day for underdog Nebraska, whose play was absolutely valiant, and a lifetime of second guessing for the Nebraska kicker whose out of bounds kickoff set in motion the events that brought about the dramatic finish. 
***CINCINNATTI -1 @ PITTSBURGH  PUSH
FINAL : CINCINNATTI 38, PITTSBURGH 37
This was like the football version of a heavyweight championship fight, last man standing.  These two teams pounded each other mercilessly in chilly Pittsburgh as the snow fell throughout.  It looked like Pitt had put Cinci away in the first half when lame blocking effort by the Bearcats on a punt set up an short Pitt TD.  On the ensuing kickoff , a return for a TD by Mardy Gilyard reinvigorated the Bearcats. Gilyard had 230 yards of kick returns by the early part of Q4, plus a long TD catch. It came down to a missed extra point by Pitt and a thrilling comeback--the kind of comeback by which champions are measured-to give Cincinnatti the win and a perfect 12-0 for the year.  Two Gun is in the habit of reminding me that the LVSC has some of the best minds in the world, and they showed it again, perfectly handicapping this one.
**FRESNO STATE @ ILLINOIS OVER 59 1/2  WINNER
FINAL 105 POINTS
They put up 49 points by halftime!  Fresno State has traveled over 23,000 miles this year to play games in 5 of the 6 U.S. time zones.  That has nothing to do with the outcome, but I found it interesting when they flashed it on the screen. This one paid off in the third quarter and kept on running, eventually breaking 100.  Very entertaining, as long as you're not a big fan of defense, and for this wager we surely were not.
*FRESNO STATE +3 @ ILLINOIS WINNER
I expected the Illini to play well enough to lose, and they did.  The final play hung the "L": a 2 point conversion by Fresno State that was batted back into the enormous paws of a behemoth offensive lineman who toppled across the goal line like a felled giant oak for the winning margin with :02 on the clock. Alternate, optional analogy to the giant oak: "dropped like the Desperate Housewives extortionist who was hit by the airplane on Wisteria Lane". For the record, Juice's final desperation pass was intercepted, a poingnant punctuation mark to a sad season for Illinois.

PS:  While this space is dedicated to the successful pursuit of the art and science of wagering on college football, it is no secret that when it's time to cheer, we are a Purple House.  It is great news for 'Cat Nation (yes, there is one, and it is growing, and you are all invited to jump on the bandwagon, good seats still available) that Northwestern has accepted an invitation to play on New Year's Day in Tampa in the Outback Bowl.  Go 'Cats!
PPS: Listening to Lou Holtz (who was on the selection show on ESPN Sunday night) gets harder the more you listen.  Last night's lishpfesht featured this gem, offered in re the Georgia Tech option offense facing the excellent Iowa defense : "they never see the option in the Big Ten...Iowa is going to be amazed when they see it". 

What a dope.

Did You Ever Have to Make Up Your Mind?

This was the toughest week so far this year to make selections.  I viewed and reviewed the matchups and spreads. I read. I researched.  Two Gun and I held a teleconference.  It finally came down to "just do it".
The handicappers are so good to start with, and they have become so much better now than they were at the start of the season, that finding the mismatches and opportunities is an extraordinary challenge.  If you have watched our last two weeks' performances, it was no cakewalk to start.

The accoumpanying video offers a lyrical correlation. It has no compelling imagery, so don't watch, just listen.




You watched anyway, didn't you?

**** TEXAS -14 @ NEBRASKA

7:00 pm Saturday, ABC

The Longhorns are my preseason selection to unseat Florida as National Champions.  The early part of their season was challenging, as they covered nothing. That got me to worrying.  Watching their performances of the last few weeks have gone a long way to make me feel like Texas can pull it off. Next step is Nebraska.
***CINCINNATTI -1 @ PITTSBURGH
11:00 am Saturday, ABC
Back and forth, back and forth I went. Cinci can't go 12-0, can they, with all the distractions of their coach snuggling up with USB?  Pitt, very, very good, but doesn't win the big ones.  Cinci hasn't played all that strong of a schedule.  Pitt is beat up from last week's game against WVa.  My choice came down to the leadership and confidence of the QB tandem from Cincinatti, Tony Pike and Zach Collaros, a senior and a freshman.  Pike broke his arm, had it screwed together and has come back and played exceptionally well.  While he was gone, Collaros put up nice, big numbers.  Verdict: Cincinnatti goes 12-0.
**FRESNO STATE @ ILLINOIS OVER 59 1/2
11:30 Saturday, BTN

Illinois has had a disaster of a season. The Illini played respectably against Cincinatti last weekend, though they never seemed to be a real threat to win.  Fresno State has put together a very nice season despite toiling in relative anonymity. Three of their losses were good showings against very tough teams. I think they're both going to score some points, enough to go over. 
*FRESNO STATE +3 @ ILLINOIS
We'll take the points and assume that Illinois plays well enough to lose again. This invites a nice little parlay wager to make it interesting.


A slide show of college football coaches who got big $$$$ to go away, click here.

The Bowl Selection show is on ESPN at 7:00 Sunday night.