Week 15

This is the end and this is the beginning.

Week 15 is the end of the regular season. There are just two games scheduled for Saturday, one we can handicap and one we'll take a s.w.a.g. at.  

This is the beginning of Bowl Season, and we'll attempt to analyze each contest and make an intelligent investment.  We live for these three weeks.  The posting schedule of Monday and Friday will be revised to the day before and the day after.  We have historically done pretty well at this time of year, and this year we need it, having ended the last three weeks with negatives.

This year debuted the Four Star system.  Two Gun Pete came up with the idea for the Four Star system, and it has worked.  Last year we picked 98 games and finished 48-48-2, about as profitable as a monkey flinging crap at random targets.  With the star system, we're +21 going into this weekend.  If you were playing them all along with us, you made money, and that's the purpose: fun and money. 

At the outset I said we'd stick to what we know, and for the most part we did that. What we've done correctly is easy to identify.  What we did wrong is partly the risk of the play and partly some bad decisions/habits.  Lessons learned:

1.  Don't fall in love with any team. 

We played some teams too much on reputation and not on current performance, kind of like the disclaimer that comes after the investment ads - past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Early LSU is an example.

2.  Be critical of the oddsmakers' choices; their job is to create action. 

Early season Texas and Penn State are examples of what I'm talking about.  They couldn't cover anything, so adjust.

3.  Critique your own trends. 

Big Mike pointed out that we were almost always betting favorites, true dat.  It cost us some money, all the way to the end (Texas v. Nebraska, case in point).

4.  Realize what you do well and do it. 

We do well with over/under plays,and we didn't play them frequently enough.  No excuse, just screwed up.

5.  Don't bet parlays based on initials, states, haircuts or mascots. 

We didn't publish any of them, but we played 'em, and they all lost.

6.  Don't bet it 'cause you want to make it happen

e.g.: Indiana sucked, and we couldn't make them not suck, despite betting on them and feeling bad for Bill Lynch.

7. Never

8. Never

 9. EVER

10.  ...bet on Notre Dame.

Never. 

Brian Kelly is going to abandon his 12-0, once in a lifetime Cincinatti Bearcats to go get his ass kicked in South Bend.  He and USB deserve each other. 

Brian Kelly : just another reason to hate Notre Dame.

We have two bets  one bet to make.

*Army @ Navy UNDER 41 1/2
Army's not too strong, and Navy played its best game a few months back against Ohio State.  Let's take our own advice and play O/U.  The weekend weather isn't likely to be too nice, either, suggesting tough playing conditions that can keep the scoring down.

The other game is Montana and Applachian State.  There's was no line, i.e. another lesson.  Stick with what you know, and nobody knows what's going to happen when these two lightly followed teams with their gaudy records square off.  Save your money for next week and enjoy Army/Navy.