Foreshadowing Indeed

Simply disastrous. I saw all the signs, added them up, and wrote in the sum that I wanted to see, not the one that I had calculated.

Pitt crushed USF. The Bulls' defense imploded like Ozzie Guillen's alibi.

The handwriting was on the wall, and I denied it.

Sorry about that.

Short Takes and Week 5 Picks

• Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon, that's my new favorite player.  To find out why, click here.
• My one word review of the Potawatomi Casino in Milwaukee : "dank".                            
• Q. What's across the street from Marquette University?
• A. The dank.
• I'm getting over Ozzie Guillen pretty fast.  My rate of recovery is directly related to his revelation that it's all about the money.
• If you have any pangs of conscience about our wagering hobby, reference Ozzie Guillen.
• The second episode of Two and a Half Men in its new incarnation was about half as good as the first.
• The first episode of Two and a Half Men in its new incarnation wasn't that good.
• Let us play.  Two strong match ups and two battles of the inept.  The pageantry of autumn!

****  New Mexico State  -1 1/2 @ New Mexico 
Saturday 7:00 p.m.  MTN Network

This is Sweet Sue, pictured here in honor
of the Northwestern vs Illinois game, the
winner of which was formerly awarded
custody of the Sweet Sioux trophy.  The
Sweet Sioux was a tomahawk on a plaque,
an exquisite old relic that was among the
finest of all the rivalry game prizes It was
replaced by the Land of Lincoln trophy,
a rather uninspired bit of hardware that
features a stovepipe hat on a wooden base.
There is really no reason for presenting
this photo here other than that I really
liked it when I stumbled across it. The
play on words that I used as justification
for posting the photo is a transparent
ploy to legitimize my choice. Ha!

This is 1-3 vs. 0-4, hardly the stuff of legendary showdowns.  New Mexico State--the Aggies-- beat Minnesota in Week 2 for its lone win.  New Mexico went to OT last weekend before submitting to mighty Sam Houston State.  The Lobos will go down again this weekend.

***  #16  USF -2 1/2 @ Pitt
Thursday 7:00 p.m. ESPN
The high flying Bulls of the University of South Florida share the spotlight on Thursday evening with the Pitt Panthers.  USF is 4-0, its most notorious victory of the season coming on opening weekend @ USB (then Ball State,Florida A&M and UTEP).  Pitt is 2-2 with wins over the Buffalo Bulls (ack, foreshadowing?) and the Maine Bears in the first two weeks of the season followed by losses to Iowa and USB. Pitt's been looking much better, and the Panthers have a schizzy history for us.  USF is ripe for a letdown.  All that considered, I'm still picking the Bulls.

**  Akron @ Eastern Michigan -9 
Saturday Noon TV TBA
The Zips are hapless.  They're 1-3, getting pasted by their first three opponents before beating up VMI last week.  Eastern Michigan is also not so good.  They beat a couple insubstantial opponents to open the season, then got slapped around pretty well when they met Michigan and Penn State.  The play here is that "not so good" trumps "hapless". 



*  #14 Texas A&M -3  @ #18 Arkansas
Saturday 11:00 a.m. ESPN
Such a tough one to pick.  A&M is 2-1, Arkansas is 3-1.  Arkansas just got beat by Alabama while A&M is coming off a one point loss to Oklahoma State.  This should be a great game.

Lots of fun match ups to see this weekend:  Northwestern @ Illinois (11:00 a.m. ESPN2), Alabama @ Florida (7:00 p.m. CBS), Nebraska @ Wisconsin (7:00 p.m. ABC). 

Near Misses, and a Lad Called Munchie

A fine Saturday! It was almost a great Saturday, save for just a couple points,  but we'll take it.

Oh, yeah...Mrs. PFOS won at Potawotami, too.

**** Arkansas @ Alabama -11 1/2 WIN
Final 38-14.  I just love a team that loves to go kick the point spread out of an opponent.

*** Georgia -9 1/2 @ Mississippi   WIN
Final 27-13.  Happy happy joy joy...

** Toledo +2 @ Syracuse LOSE
Syracuse 33, Toledo 30, Referees ZERO.   Toledo won this game in regulation, but it isofficially a 3 point loss in OT.  Syracuse missed the extra point on their last TD, but the referees called it good.  Then the review booth official looked it over and he, too, called it good.  That PAT put the game in OT, where Syracuse won.  After the game, the Big East issued a statement that said, um, both those guys were wrong and we hope everyone learned a lesson.  Yeah, I learned a lesson...gimme my goddam money, that's the lesson! 

Oh, if only it was that easy.




* North Carolina State @ Cincinnatti OVER 60 1/2 LOSE
Final 44-14.  A big "OH, S&#T!" went off in my command post on Thursday night when Cinncinnati got the ball back with five minutes to play and a 30 point lead.  Why?  Leading the Bearcats offense in the final minutes was not their big dawg signal caller Zack Collaros, no, it was none other than Munchie Legaux, QB extraordinaire!  Let me say that again....Munchie Legaux, QB extraordinaire!  A-MA-ZING! NC State didn't do diddly on offense all night and we got a loser.  I originally had this game (as did Two Gun) as a Cinncinnatti lay the points pick and switched to the O/U.  Outsmarted myself, but we did get to see Munchie Legaux, QB extraordinaire! Munchie's real name is Benton, I have learned, and he's probably going to be a decent QB at some point.  It just didn't show on Thursday.  I couldn't find out the surely fascinating backstory of how Benton came to be known as Munchie. 

The underdog parlay was SOOOOO CLOSE!!!  AAArrrrgghhhh!
KState, getting 13, won outright.  1 of 4
EMich, getting 28 1/2 @ Penn State, won by a half point.  2 of 4.
Middle Tennessee State got 12 and won, boy oh boy oh boy...3 of 4.
Cal.  Oh Cal, why didn't you have another spoonful of Wheaties this morning.  Cal got 1, they lost by 2, and my glorious 4 dog parlay was snatched away by this tiny margin.

Days like this are awesome. 

Warnings from Two Gun & I Went to Springfield

This was us in Week 4 of
last year.  Sweet memories, huh?

Two Gun kicks off this week with the sagacious admonition to "respect the four".  Last year during Week 4, we were as successful as Adam Dunn's waning baseball season.  Worse, actually, as Dunn fails on average 5 out of 6 times.  During Week 4 of 2010 we were 0 for 4.   So chin up, Adam!  Somebody was once worse than you!  Difference is nobody paid us $14 million and we bounced back before the season ended. 

Now, my friends, let us play.

**** Arkansas @ Alabama -11 1/2
Saturday 2:30
This is a double secret probation bet.  We have lamented not getting on board previously with the Tide, and we have likewise lamented casting our lot once too often with the Razorbacks of Arkansas.  Here's our big bullets saying that 'Bama can make it work.  It will be wonderfully entertaining, watching a few dozen crazed southern boys beat the hell out of one another for a few hours.

Abe's big head, out in front of his tomb.
The story goes that the big tomb was
constructed after some disgruntled
Confederates swiped Lincoln's body
from the original grave with the intention
of desecrating the remains. The body
was recovered and eventually placed
under a substantial amount of cement
to deter future body snatchers.
The Confederates responded by inventing
illegal corn liquor and NASCAR.
The real story is apparently a
couple of wise guys from Chicago did
try to steal the body, circa 1876.
That story does not account for
how we got the Daytona 500, so
I am conflicted.  There is a book
about this, called (appropriately)
Stealing Lincoln's Body.  It is
available on Amazon.  Truth.

*** Georgia -9 1/2 @ Mississippi
Saturday 11:20
A pair of 1-2 teams matched up here.  Georgia : lost to Big Bad Boise by 14, to the South Carolina Gamecocks by 3, no shame in either of those. Then they beat up the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (the rooster logo team).    Mississippi lost to BYU by 1 and to Vandy by 30-7.  They beat Southern Illinois University 42-24 for their one victory.  Georgia covers this one for us.
** Toledo +2 @ Syracuse
Toledo has two good losses on their ledger; they got beat (barely) by Ohio State and by Boise (hmmm...sound familiar?).  That's pretty good competition.  Syracuse has 2 victories : they beat Wake Forest and Rhode Island.  Big deal.  They also performed respectably in losing to USC.  I think the Rockets will win this one, though I'm a bit concerned about how they'll react to the dome.  If the Syracuse crowd can be taken out of the game, we should be fine.



* North Carolina State @ Cincinnatti  OVER 60 1/2
Thursday 7:00 p.m.
A pair of 2-1 teams.  NC State beat a pair of cupcakes.  Cincinnatti beat Austin Peay (the Governors, how's that for a lame mascot name?) and everybody's punching bag, the Akron Zips.  The Bearcats lost to Tennessee.  What do they both have going? Lots of offense. Our first scoring wager of the year.    Sit back and watch the show.

Off Topic
I spent Tuesday in Springfield on business.  I haven't been in Springfield since I was a child;  it's vastly more interesting when you don't have to go everywhere on a school bus with 40 kids.  I detoured to Abraham Lincoln's tomb, where Abe's big noggin greets everyone out front.  I was immediately taken back years and years, to the shiny nose, everyone has to rub the nose.  I had precious little time to take a quick peek at the historical sights, and there are quite a few; I want to go back and spend a day or two seeing the museums and historical sights. 

Without the 40 kids.

Finally, VMI visits the Akron Zips, kickoff tomorrow @ 1:00 p.m.  Between them so far this year, 6 decisions, all losses.  Meh.  I do have a covert 4 dog parlay on which I have ventured : EMich + KState + Cal + MidTnSt. 

It could happen...

This Stuff Makes Me Crazy

The little parlay looked like great fun.  Northwestern was flat out whupped by the Army on Saturday, as the Black Knights O-line moved around a much bigger NU D-line as needed.  Hate to bet against the alma mater, but I saw this one coming.  That part of the 3 dog parlay worked fine.

Then I got kicked once again by USB.  The MSU Spartans were getting 4 1/2.  They needed a boatload more than 4 1/2, parlay dead, no 3 Dog Night, no Won Is the Onliest Number, no 12:1 payback.   Always USB.  Never USB. 

Ohio State eventually screwed the pooch, too, so it wasn't to be.

On with the show.

Friday night at the truck race at
Chicagoland Speedway.  Tie in to football?
The blackness of the sky foreshadows the
darkness that would envelope my usually
indomitable spirit  when USB
destroyed my 3 Dog Night.

**** Miami @ Minnesota -3 WIN
Final 29-23.  The Gophers had me dripping over my dress shields right up to the very end.  The statement game that I expected from Minnesota never really materialized.  There was a statement, allright...that MN isn't all that good.  Good enough on this day, though, for a  big winner for us.

*** Troy @ Arkansas -24 1/2LOSE
Final 38-28.  I was afraid of going to the well one too many times and today was it.  Troy is a pretty good team, and Arkansas is just too uneven for comfort.  Arkansas can move the ball like they're wearing jet packs and then flame out and come hurtling back to reality.  The spread was too much; they had it and then choked it back.  I was stupid greedy, betting a result I wanted instead of the one I anticipated.  The Razorbacks even gave up a gratuitous score in the final minute to bring the ending margin to just 10.  Time for us to throw Arkansas on the discard pile.
** Buffalo @ Ball State -4 1/2 LOSE
Ball State stinks.  They had this one covered and all was well.  Then they let Buffalo up off the deck for a dozen unanswered points, only to score the winning-- but not covering-- points with seconds to go in the game.  Nice entertainment and a good team win... that is of absolutely no use to a soul-less bettor.
* Cincinnatti -34 1/2 @ Akron  WIN
Final 59-14.  Two Gun identified this opportunity and we cashed it.  The Zips were never in it. 

The week ends up a push, and the little parlay never really had a chance. 

Week 3 Picks and New Rags for the Army

Forgive the brevity, it's been a really busy week.

Week 3 and everything gets a little tougher.  The oddsmakers, who are really good at their jobs, have had a couple weeks to acclimate to the new season and tune up.  They're dialing in these games a little more precisely, so the challenge becomes a little greater.  Let's start:

****  Miami @ Minnesota -3
Saturday 2:30 BTN
Jerry Kill's Gophers started big, then stumbled.  MN pushed USC hard in Week 1,  then lost last week to a supposedly inferior New Mexico State team.  So which game is most representative of Minnesota football?  Minnesota Coach Kill scared everyone when he suffered a seizure on the sideline of last Saturday's game, but Kill is expected to be back at work on the field today.  MN's opponent this week is MiamiO, who lost to Missouri 17-6 in Week 1 and had last weekend off.  With only one game played, we're left to make a lot of inferences about who the Redhawks are.  This game looks to be a battle, and I see the edge to the Gophers at home, making a bit of statement.

*** Troy @ Arkansas -24 1/2
Saturday 6:30 on ESPN3
This spread has me a bit puzzled.  Arkansas is at home, and this Razorback team, when they execute, is extremely impressive.  Visitor Troy has one game on its ledger, a 43-19 thumping at the hands of Clemson.  I'm reluctant to go to the well too often (re: last week's Arkansas cover), but I think the Hogs in their home trough have the power in this one.

** Buffalo @ Ball State -4 1/2
Buffalo isn't good.  Two Gun says "always come back with the team that disappointed you".  Good.  Let's do it.

*  Cincinnatti -34 1/2 @ Akron
Saturday @ 6:30, ESPN3
Two Gun's insight : always bet against the Zips.  Easier to do when the Bearcats QB is muy bien.

I waited on placing some of these and the lines moved against me; ticks me off, but I've been busy.   To get over it, I placed a small 3 dog parlay :
 MSU +4 1/2 vs. USB
Army +7 1/2 vs. Northwestern
OSU +2 1/2 vs. the U

Finally, Army has new uniforms...football uniforms.  They're very cool, here's a video, only takes a minute, you have to watch to the end to see the cool gloves that come with.

A Pretty Good Day, and Some Other Stuff

'Twas a pretty good day this past Saturday. 

I thoroughly enjoyed Saturday's early BTN game, watching the Toledo Rockets extend Ohio State to the very last play of the game before coming up short.  I did not so thoroughly enjoy listening to the B-list game announcer, whoever he was, repeatedly prattle on through the 4th quarter about how this would "arguably be the biggest win in Toledo football history" if they can pull it off.  IF-IF-IF. 
<><> <><> <><><><><><><>  <> <><> <><><><><><><> <><>

Another Two Gun imposter,
this one undersiege
from bad guys AND monsters.
He also appears to be in denial.

IF my aunt had whiskers, she'd be my uncle. 

She doesn't, she isn't and Toledo got beat. 

**** New Mexico @ Arkansas -35 WIN_
Final 52-3.  Arkansas rocketed into the end zone after 1:50 of the game had expired, then went into a funk that had me worried.  They got back on track toward the end of Q1 and then proceeded to beat the living daylights out of Mike Locksley's Lobos.  Coach Mike is now entering his third year of terrible; I gotta look to see how long his contract runs, 'cause this team is a train wreck.  Good for us on this day.
*** Ball State +21 1/2 @ USF  LOSE
Final 37-7.  Hangover game my arse.  Ball State was the group that looked hungover (in addition to incompetent and agonizingly, ploddingly slow) against the Bulls.  I believe that Skip Holtz took his foot off the gas a little, 'cause I think USF could have hung 50 on this bad, bad Ball State squad.  Nothing good to say, I just got this one 100% wrong.
** Tulsa -14 1/2 @ Tulane  WIN_
Final 31-3.  Followed it on GameDay while watching the alma mater slap around Eastern Illinois.  Tulsa worked it out just like we planned.  Good one for smugness quotient.

* Iowa -7 @ Iowa State  LOSE
James Vandenberg is not Ricky Stanzi.  Duh.  Iowa went to Mason City and crapped its collective drawers.  The Hawkeyes trailed 17-16 in the the fourth quarter, then put together a long drive AND made the 2 point conversion to lead 24-17!  Then they played like puppies, gave up the tying TD, and then ran out the clock to go to OT.  Blech!  In the OT, Iowa State showed itself absolutely capable of going toe to toe with Iowa.  They traded TD's for a while in OT, until Iowa soiled itself again to lose, 44-41.

I received the strangest phone message Saturday morning (I was incommunicado, as team PFOS was liberating a few dollars from the good people at Harrah's Joliet).  The call was from someone doing a spot-on imitation of Two Gun Pete, proclaiming that he had isolated several exciting plays for the day.  Fortunately, I was not fooled and placed no ancillary wagers, as the imposter's top three choices got whacked by a combined total of about a hundred points.  

Totally off topic : here's two quickie movie reviews. 
 1.  Our Idiot Brother :    Meh.   A waste of time.
 2.  Crazy Stupid Love :  See review for Our Idiot Brother.

A football related random observation : I don't like Notre Dame, but I like Tommy Rees. 
Finally, reprising an old favorite in honor of the alma mater.

10 Years...

Walden Pond / Vegas Pound / Terrapin Tales

Another TV show that helps us maintain
a smug attitude toward the world.

TwoGun is still luxuriating in the solitude of Walden Pond with his spouse, and the extreme climatic change that we've experienced here in the hinterland has likely made his piscine pursuits more precarious.  While TwoGun and the Mrs. are remote, I am sure that news has reached my erstwhile associate that Week 1 didn't pan out exactly as we hoped.  So we reload and blast away, foregoing the customary strategy meeting.   I'm flying solo this week.

****  New Mexico @ Arkansa -35
Saturday 6:00 on ESPNU
Arkansas flies a little bit under the radar, as much as that's possible when you're sporting a #15 national ranking.  In their opener, the Razorbacks stomped all over sparring partner Missouri State, 51-7.  In round 2, they'll host the legendary New Mexico Lobos, who waltzed around throughout the afternoon with an equally hapless Colorado State Rams before succumbing 14-10 in week 1.  You would think I'd get shy about a 35 point spread after having three covers ripped away from us last week, but I think Arkansas will see their cherished national ranking depends on their ability to pummel an inferior opponent.  That's the plan, anyway.

*** Ball State  +21 1/2 @ USF
Saturday 6:00 on ESPN3
This looks like a hangover game.  Everybody knows that USF toppled the overblown egos of USB at SB this past Saturday.  The Bulls won because they overcame a bucketful of their own mistakes as a result of the greater affinity for error displayed by Notre Dame.  Ball State, one of those teams that labors out of the limelight, took on in-state rival Indiana on Saturday and earned a "W" over an improved from last year Hoosier squad.  So, this week,  Ball State travels to Tampa for the Bulls home opener.  I'm guessing that USF isn't going to be able to get as excited about Ball State as they did about USB, so the 21 1/2 should be too much.

** Tulsa -14 1/2 @ Tulane
Saturday @ 2:30, no TV listed
Tulsa ran into the buzz saw when they visited Oklahoma last week, 47-14 the final.  Don't be fooled, Tulsa is good, just not Sooners at home on opening weekend good.  The Golden Hurricanes plays an excruciatingly difficult schedule this year, and this will be their opportunity to get a feel-good result. Tulane won 47-33 against Southeastern Louisiana in their opener, but they are  moving up in class this week, waaaay up, and it will show.

*  Iowa -7 @ Iowa State
Saturday @ 11:00, probably on BTN
This is a fun game, the annual match of Iowa Big 10 and Iowa Big 12, Hawkeyes at Cyclones.  The Hawkeyes have won the last three years by a total of 87-10, but Ricky Stanzi doesn't play here anymore.  Unfortunately for Iowa State, the Hawks still have a lot more talent than the Cyclones.

On an unrelated topic, I discovered a new favorite TV show over the weekend.  It's on TruTV, a show called Las Vegas Jailhouse.  It shows a steady stream of drunks, degenerates, hookers and dopers being brought into the Clark County Correctional Center in Sin City.  The drunks are surprisingly boisterous, considering the number of large uniformed police officers that are onmipresent and quite willing to demonstrate attitude adjustment.  The hookers are startlingly skaggy looking (does Vegas have any dentists?), and the degenerates and dopers, well, tune in and see.  It's a wonderful tonic, this show, allowing us to ratchet up our smug quotient along with getting some cheap laughs. 

Smug.  Our word of the day.

Smug.
______________________________
Update:  Maryland Uniforms
The new threads are not a haphazard design, though they strike as such.  Matt Hinton with a brief explanation here

They Were Who We Feared They Might Be

Kitty finds football boring.

It began so well on Thursday evening, as the Badgers started steadily pounding UNLV.  Then, late in the game, it turned frustrating as we saw Bielema clear the bench too soon on defense.  

Losing the opener was especially perturbing, as it immediately snuffed out the parlay I had silently placed on this week's selections. We needed to be perfect and we were anything but.
Don't the alumni at these places know that they're supposed to demand covers so that we can be smug and make money and brag about how prescient we are? 

We should have bet on Alabama.  Now there's a coach who knows how to humiliate an opening day tomato can.


**** Arkansas State @ Illinois -21LOSE
Final 33-15  Once again, the Illini promise more, deliver less.  Late Arkansas TD blows the cover.  Betting on Zook is like betting on USB.

*** Akron @ Ohio State -33 1/2  WIN_
Final 42-0.  The Bucks started very slowly on offense, so as I toggled back and forth between this game and the alma mater, I was concerned that we might be looking at one of those quirky, annual/once-in-a-lifetime upsets.  The OSU defense was never anything other than what was expected, the offense came around, and we booked our first winner of the year.  Exhaled, too.

** Chattanooga @ Nebraska -35LOSE
Final 40-7.  I figured this would be tight on the scoring side, and when Chattanooga broke the shutout we were dead.

* UNLV @ Wisconsin -35  LOSE
Final 51-17. Wisconsin rolled out to a 51-3 lead and we were looking so, so good. They had scored on every possession and had shut down the visitors.  Then they peed their pants and gave up 2 unanswered touchdowns to win by 34. That would be, normally, a wonderful blowout, but tonight it was 34, as in not 35, which is what we needed (and then there's the matter of the missed PAT that would have given us a push). We lost.