New Year's Day Games

Last night, Bowling Green came up a tad short in a thriller and we had a "W" slip away.  Great game, though.  Nebraska came like thunder, administering a beat down of immense proportion to Arizona. We end up with a split for the night. 

Tonight's matchups were posted yesterday as we get ready to be absent on New Year's Day, engaged in dream-come-true pursuits in Tampa. Here's the outlook for Friday.

The Outback Bowl
Northwestern +7 vs Auburn  O/U 54 1/2
10:00 a.m. New Year's Day
Take the 'Cats, take the over, and take 2 aspirin with a chilled glass of V8 'cause you overdid it last night. Our clan has ventured to Tampa to bear witness as the 'Cats exorcise the demons that have them not winning a bowl game since Give 'Em Hell Harry Truman was the head coach of Team USA.

The Gator Bowl
Florida State vs West Virginia -3 O/U 60 1/2
New Year's Day at NOON
We have a difference of opinion.  TwoGun thinks the Seminoles are going to play like crazy to send Bobby Bowden out on a high note. I think that's a Hollywood ending that everybody would like to see.  Like Maverick said in Top Gun, you never leave your wingman, so we'll avoid the spread and play O/U.  I think this game is going to be an UNDER.
 
Capital One Bowl
LSU vs Penn State -2 1/2 O/U 43 1/2
New Year's Day at NOON
Bet OVER, and bet Penn State.  This is not the old LSU, and Penn State finished their season pretty strong. PSU won't blow 'em away, but a 3 point win gets the job done. 

The Rose Bowl
Ohio State +3 1/2 vs Oregon O/U 51
New Year's Day 3:30 p.m.
The Granddaddy of 'em all, and a terrific match up. Both teams arrive with gaudy 10-2 records.  The Ducks are enormously entertaining, and The OSU has lost only twice: to USC in week 2 and an inexplicable midseason clinker at Purdue.  I think it's OSU in a shootout, so I think it's an OVER play, too.

The Sugar Bowl
Cincinnati vs Florida -11 O/U 57
New Year's Day 6:30 p.m.
Cincinnati's kids have gotten the royal screwjob of the year thanks to the Charlie Lite abdicating the throne in the Queen City to become the new Earl of SoBe, and as if that wasn't enough, having to square off in the fare-thee-well contest for Urban NoSoul Meyer. It's the Gators by 17 in this one.

New Year's Eve Eve and Eve Games

We got even when UCLA came alive in the second half last night. Then came the Champs.  Miami ran back the kickoff and there was cause for concern.  The Wisconsin hogs came alive on both sides of the ball, and it was all about the W, sorry for U.  This is a victory for the sagacity of the aged, Two Gun vanquishes La Cubanina.  Sorry sweetie, it's money  over love, as goes the order of life.  Now we shall conscript you into the 'Cat camp for the Outback.

Here's a gratuitous photo we took through the car window yesterday in downtown Tampa, featuring a billboard for the home town school.

Lots of games the next two days, and then lots more on Friday. Here's the next two days, short & (I hope) sweet!

BOWLING GREEN v IDAHO +1 1/2 O/U 68
The Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho
WEDNESDAY 3:30 p.m.
Two 7-5 teams.  TwoGun always cites the gamblers' mantra: "who have they played and how are they playing?"  It's been a month, but BG won their last four, Idaho lost their last three.  I say BG. We drove through BG on the way here; maybe it's a signal.

NEBRASKA (9-4) v ARIZONA (8-4) -1 O/U 40
The Holiday Bowl in San Diego
WEDNESDAY 7:00 p.m.
Nebraska won 5 of 6 to finish their season.  The lone loss was the controversial 13-12 "put some time back on the clock" game against Texas.  Arizona finished well, but I am all about Nebraska in this one.

-------------------------------------------------
AIR FORCE (7-5) v HOUSTON (10-3) -4 1/2 O/U 62 1/2
The Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas
New Year's Eve 11:00 a.m.
Take your pick: Houston or Over.  Or make them a New Year's Eve parlay.

NAVY (9-4) v MISSOURI (8-4) -6 1/2 O/U 52 1/2
The Texas  +6 1/2 Bowl in Houston, Texas
New Year's Eve 2:30 p.m.
This is an OVER for me.

STANFORD (8-4) v OKLAHOMA (7-5) -10 O/U 56
The Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas
New Year's Eve 1:00 p.m.
I think the play for this game is OVER, too.


IOWA STATE +2 1/2 v MINNESOTA  O/U 48
The Insight Bowl in Tempe, Arizona
New Year's Eve 5:00 p.m.
Can we bet them to both lose? This match up stinks.  I think it's Iowa State.

TENNESSEE (7-5) v VIRGINIA TECH (9-3) -4 1/2 O/U 49
Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta
New Year's Eve, 6:30 p.m.
They're in the dome, they're going OVER, and VA Tech will cover.

I'm walking around the Tampa Bay area sporting a purple Northwestern windjacket, the garment a venerable carryover from   days gone by.  On past trips, nobody noticed.  This time, I'm getting nods and "Go 'Cats".  It's OUR TIME!  The forecast for New Year's Day  at Raymond James Stadium is 66 with a 50% chance of rain, by the way.

We Need a Rally and My Connectivity Excuse

OK, we're in the hole here, 5 up and 6 down, so let's get down to business. 

UCLA -4 1/2 v TEMPLE +4 1/2 
The Eagle Bank Bowl in Washington, DC
TUESDAY 3:30 p.m.
UCLA to cover.  This is a numerological conundrum.  Temple comes in here at 9-3, while UCLA is only 6-6.  Look at who Temple has played, then look at UCLA's opponents. Gotta go PAC 10 here.


WISCONSIN +4 v MIAMI -4 O/U 58
The Champs Sports Bowl in (Tony) Orlando (and Dawn)
TUESDAY 7:00 p.m.
Both teams have 9-3 records.Both won 4 of their final 5. Miami won some games impressively and just survived some others.  Wisconsin pounded the opponents they were supposed to (except Indiana) and should be ready to rock.  I think Wisconsin can take this one.

I apologize for my erratic posting behavior.  This is my problem and my excuse...

Only Independence Today

TEXAS A&M v GEORGIA
The Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana
MONDAY 4:00 p.m.
Sorry for the tardy post, internet problems.  Long story shorter, we bet A&M and lost.  They suck. We suck.

Today: Nashville Cats, Yesterday:bleh...

KENTUCKY +7 1/2  v CLEMSON
The Music City Bowl in Nashville
SUNDAY 7:30 p.m.
Nashville is a fun city.  We discovered that when we spent a stop over day there a few years back. Here's hoping that Kentucky finds their stay rewarding.

I started an analysis of this game and found myself just proving up the numbers that the oddsmakers had come up with.  KY comes in at 7-5, Clemson at 8-5.  Clemson brings a little more of a reputation to this game than does Kentucky.  I think Kentucky will take home the bragging rights.  I'm taking KY and the points. If you're looking for an O/U play, the number is 52 1/2.   These two finished their last three games each with a composite 5-1 on the over side.

Yesterday
Marshall & Ohio: 10 points in the second half. Bleh...we said over, they sleep-walked to under.
North Carolina & Pitt: By the time the wager went in, our 3 point give to NC had shrunk to 2 1/2.  It was enough, a 1/2 point winner.
USC & BC:Boston College played valiantly and deserved a better result (and so did we).  BC's 25 year old freshman quarterback almost singlehandedly threw it away.

Just 364 Shopping Days 'Till Christmas

At 1:30 in the afternoon on Christmas Eve we bought out our original wager for the Thursday night Hawaii Bowl and went the opposite way, and it was the very best decision we could have made!  SMU, getting 12 1/2, led 31-0 at the half.  The final was SMU 45, Nevada 10.  Big winner!

Dragnet post for today's games -- just the facts.

OHIO  v MARSHALL O/U 49 1/2
Little Caesar's Bowl at Ford Field
In the Foreclosure Capital of America
SATURDAY @ NOON
This is a lame matchup.  Marshall is only 6-6, and Ohio at 9-4 doesn't excite. Let's take the over, on the premise that the two teams are going to score a lot in order to entertain themselves.

NORTH CAROLINA +3 v PITTSBURGH
Meineke Bowl in Hush Hush Sweet Charlotte
SATURDAY 3:30 p.m.
On paper, these two teams appear very evenly matched. This is a de facto home game for NC, so I'm thinking the almost home game and the 3 points are going to be enough to get the job done. 

BOSTON COLLEGE +8 1/2 v USC
Emerald Bowl in San Francisco
at AT&T Park, Where the Giants play
SATURDAY 7:00 p.m
This is an unusual matchup, in that USC is normally playing a more substantial game and opponent at this time of year.  USC is rather screwed up this year, with eligibility issues bubbling up over the last few weeks.   I think USC is going to win but not cover.  BC has been rather enigmatic this season, making this a difficult read.  BC and the points.

Happy Festivus

Happy day, see you tomorrow!

Lulu, Patty, Maxine & Lavergne

    Yea, baby, final last night was Utah 37, Cal 27, and that spells money!
    One game tonight, from bee-yoo-tee-ful Hawaii.  Here's the music to get you in the mood...it's not a Christmas song. Just play it.  It's fun.  It's Jan & Dean.

Southern Methodist +12 1/2  v Nevada 
The Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu Lulu
Thursday 7:00 p.m.
I don't recall seeing an O/U of 72 1/2 before. Neither of these teams has seen one that high this season either, though Nevada and Idaho combined for 115 points in their matchup in October.  SMU's coach is June Jones, who came to Dallas a couple years ago from Hawaii, where he was very successful.  He's moved SMU upmarket quickly.  The line has been volatile on this game, indicating a lot of conflicting thoughts. My wishy-washy conclusion is that the line is right: this game can go either way. 
BETTORS' ALERT!!! I'VE ONLY DONE THIS ONCE BEFORE: WE'RE BUYING OUT NOW AND FLIPPING  THE PLAY!
I can't get any good vibes on this game, so I'm pulling back and making my bet on June Jones.  These two teams have every distraction out there in Hawaii, and there's no huge accolade heading for the winner.  So who has more motivation?  June Jones, taking the program he's been hired to resurrect, back to his old stomping grounds.  We've paid the vig and switched this play to SMU +12  1/2    --- PFOS  (posted 1:47 pm)
My daughter, home for Christmas, insisted that Honolulu Lulu was not sufficient for the day and should be augmented.  Here's Amy's choice.

Bing and the Andrews Sisters:

Patty, Lavergne and Maxine.

Merry Christmas!

Cousin Eddie and Two Utes

About last night...sorry, I didn't expect Oregon State to completely suck.  You know it's not your night when the star running back (one of the Rodgers boys) has his first career fumble... and it's returned for a TD... and the punter kicks one straight up... and another straight sideways, right into the seventh row of seats.  Final was 44-20, so they failed to cover by just 46 1/2.  OSU also scored a meaningless late TD to blow the under, just to further ingratiate themselves to the wagering masses.  Let's just move on.

One of the funniest Christmas movie scenes ever.

Utah Utes +3 1/2 vs California Golden Bears 

The Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego      Wednesday 7:00 p.m.

Both teams are two games under .500 ATS.  Utah has been tough all year long.  Everybody's been hearts and flowers on Cal after a strong start (they were ranked #6 at one point this season), but I think it's the Utes tonight.  It's not their fault that they have what may be the dullest and most unimaginative team name in college sports.  Take the points and watch Joe Pesci talk about the Utes.

One Game Tonight, #4 of 34

On a personal note: 
       Bien gracias a la Cubanina para los papas.
One game tonight, so if you still need to finish the last minute Christmas shopping, wait until tomorrow (the liquor store is open every night) and set aside some time for this game (you can always stop at the gas station, too, and give the gift of lottery tickets). 
     For now, here's a little Christmas cheer video.

#16 BYU vs  #14 Oregon State -2 1/2
The Las Vegas Bowl       Tuesday, 7:00 p.m.

This is a pretty flashy match up. BYU, 10-2, is appearing in this game for the 5th consecutive year. Oregon State, the PAC 10 runner up, is 8-4. There is a veritable plethora of stats on this game that can be used to back an argument either way.  For the bet, it comes down to history, and I'm picking the Beavers.  BYU has the more impressive record straight up, but they are 5-7 ATS, while the Beavers are 8-4 ATS.  In addition, Oregon State has faced a bit stiffer competition throughout the year, including their final game of the season, a 37-33 loss to conference champ Oregon.  The O/U on this game is 59.  I think it's an UNDER play, OSU 34, BYU 20, if you're thinking parlay.

     Now, another Christmas ditty, a lesson to be discrete with your Christmas spirit(s).

It's going to get really busy, game wise, over the next week.  The challenge: finding enough time to watch all the games you want to watch while remaining employed and actually socially engaged with other real, non-video-imaged humans. 

Cowboys / Jersey Boys / Dasher Runs Wild

The first three bowls are in the books and we did OK. Before we review them, I would like to share an obscure musical Christmas treasure.

Wyoming v. Fresno State OVER 54 1/2 WINNER

FINAL

With around 8 minutes to play they had rung up 53 points and any score would make us a winner.  Then the Wyoming MLB executed a beautiful strip of the ball from the Fresno State tailback around the 20 yard line and turned the game around. With their deliberate offense, Wyoming started plodding downfield, even converting a fake punt to keep their drive alive.  The Cowboys kicked a field goal with :25 to go to 56 total points, allowing us to open with a winner. The game went to OT, where the Fresno State coach choked, sending the troops crashing the goal line unsuccessfully 4 consecutive times from less than a yard away. Wyoming seized the moment,the victory and the unusual trophy pictured here.

Central Florida +2 ½ v. Rutgers LOSE

FINAL Rutgers 45, CFU 24
Forget Saturday Knight Fever, this game was all Jersey Boys!  Rutgers, the state university of New Jersey, ran over, around and through Central Florida.  We thought the wrong team was the favorite...HAH!  The Scarlet Knights put up 28 in the first half, then opened the second half with a 62 yard pass play to set up another TD and open up a 35-17 lead. The rest was a sleep walk, most prominently featuring the CFU QB running for his life and Rutgers running back an onside kick for a TD.

Middle Tennessee v. Southern Mississippi Over 58 WIN
FINAL Middle Tennessee 42, Southern Mississippi 32
SoMiss led this game 14-0 before Mid TN got untracked behind reindeer-named QB Dwight Dasher.  The junior QB sprained his ankle -twice- and came back all taped up (and then taped up more) and ran past everybody for 4 TD's, 201 yards rushing and 161 yards passing.  The tab ran past 58 with about three and a half minutes left on the clock, assuring us of a winning opening weekend.

Tomorrow we'll work on BYU vs Oregon State. They play Tuesday night and it looks like a great match up.

3 Bowls With Unimaginative Names EDITED :)

Before the games, some conversation...football fore(star)play, as it were. 

      Michigan State has kicked off Bowl Season by kicking off ten of its players due to their inability to behave like civilized human beings, behaving more like gang bangers than “student/athletes”. Big stage, Big life, Big 10...Big dummies.
      Cincinatti sets sail for its bowl game against Urban and Tim attempting to complete an undefeated season without its regular season leader, who dumped his kids like a bad habit when the Domers beckoned. The school with the self-proclaimed highest of standards was perfectly content to kick the kids from Cincinatti right in the sweet spot by insisting that the USB counldn't possibly wait a couple weeks, and USB's new leader and molder of young men (gag!) couldn't get out of the Queen City fast enough as he self righteously turned his back on the kids from whom he had demanded so much. Working title for this show --Brian Kelly: just another reason to hate Notre Dame.
      Septuagenarian (or is he an octogenarian?)Bobby Bowden has been informed that his Florida State team’s bowl appearance will be the climax of his career. Better late than never. 
      There's a lot more news to discuss, but let's move on for now.  Before making our selections for the three opening games (the names of the games appear to have been the creative genius of of a group of bored accountants), here's an archival tribute to the departed "student/athletes" of the Michigan State football program. 



Wyoming v. Fresno State OVER 54 1/2
The New Mexico Bowl
Saturday 3:30 p.m.
If their regular season is the template for this game, the Wyoming Cowboys will put up between zero and thirty points. Their offense has been somewhat schizophrenic, as evidenced by the numbers. Their defense can be stubborn, but has frequently revealed its shortcomings and given up a bushel of points. The Fresno State Bulldogs, 12 point favorites, hung a season high 53 points on Illinois in their final game of the season in Champaign on the 5th of December. They’ve scored more than 30 points in ten of their twelve games. I had a twinge that the two teams might decide to dig in and go toe-to-toe in a defensive tussle ‘cause it‘s going to be a bit chilly (sunny and 46) in Albuquerque. Then I thought, and this is a quote directly and succinctly from my brain, “Nahhhh”.  BTW, the city of Albuquerque was founded in 1746 and named in honor of the Spanish town of the almost identical name that everyone in Spain also had trouble remembering how to spell.

Central Florida +2 ½ v. Rutgers
The St. Petersburg Bowl
Saturday 7:00 p.m.
You heard it here first: this is Saturday Knight Fever. I crack me up sometimes...CFU’s Golden Knights against Rutgers’ Scarlet Knights. CFU’s coach is George O'Leary, who formerly coached Notre Dame (an ever expanding club membership, ex-Domer coaches) for about 20 minutes (‘till they actually fact checked his resume). Two Gun said the wrong team is the favorite, and I agree with him. CFU’s defense will give Rutgers a rough ride in St. Petersburg, another bowl host city that was given its name in deference to a city that had the name first, that of course being the one in Russia, which does not currently host a bowl game, but there's always room for one more if the price is right and some TV network will lug a couple cameras over there to show the game.  Since the Russian St. Petersburg was Leningrad until 1991 (and Leningrad was previously Petrograd,but only for ten years, until Petro apparently lost the naming rights in 1924 in one of those kooky Russi p.man "misunderstandings"), the Florida St. Petersburg gets top billing and the right to host a handful of pasty-faced tourists from New Jersey.

Middle Tennessee v. Southern Mississippi Over 58
The New Orleans Bowl
7:30 p.m. Sunday
First things first: this is the 3rd consecutive bowl host city of the opening weekend that got its name from a European city of a like name, in this instance, Orleans, France. That is, for me, the most compelling fact about this game.  The game itself is a bit of a quandry.  We are supposed to stick to what we know, and I know very little about these two, and I confess that I have virtually no interest in learning about them, as I am not an inveterate investor in the exploits of either institution.  I have discerned that both teams like to score and both teams appear to treat the practice of defense as just something to do while the offense rests up on the sideline and gives each other pats on the ass and various hand signs and yells "yeah, baby, that's what I'm talkin' about" and "my house" and gives the We're Number One finger to the TV cameras and says "Hi Mom" to the camera, even though there is clearly no microphone and we can't hear what they're saying but it probably makes their Moms happy so we endure it.  Anyhoo, as a result of the paucity of knowledge, I have chosen to go with "they like to score" and take Over 58.  If you have a better idea, please share, as I am spiritually unable to invest any more time in this game. It's an NFL Sunday, so I don't think anyone but us is going to pay attention to this game...and we aintagonna be all that interested, other than the final total.

I have some really cool news to share...EDIT COMPLETElater.

One Shot, One Kill

One game Saturday, that being the annual Army/Navy contest up in Philadelphia.  It's an inspiring spectacle, the plebes and the middies packing the stands, the colors, the sounds, the pageantry...but not so much the football itself.  Navy has had an excellent season, notching some big wins and most notoriously taking Ohio State down to the wire early in the year.  Army hasn't had such an inspiring season.  Saturday's game was a snooze, and I credit that to an uninspired coaching effort, particularly from Army. 

Every team, at every level, has a defined talent level.  If your team is lacking in some attributes, you must compensate in others.  Navy has done a good job of matching talent and approach to the game.  Army has not.  As a result, every game seeems like an uphill climb for them.

Bowls start Saturday.  I will share a quote from the noted thinker Kent Dorfmann ("Flounder" in Animal House) who said "Oh boy is this gonna be great".

* Army v. Navy, Under 41 1/2 WINNER
FINAL: 20 POINTS (Navy 17, Army 3)
We played the only big stage game of the weekend and it paid off, hence 'one shot, one kill'.  The Service Academies performed as expected, and we go to a final of +22 for the season.  Not a particularly entertaining game, and even announcers Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson, the best duo currently working on TV, ran out of stuff to say.

Friday, we'll work the weekend bowl matchups.

Oh, yeah...Brian Kelly got officially named at USB.  What an absolute dick...Kelly and USB, they deserve each other, and the kids at Cincinatti deserved better.

Week 15

This is the end and this is the beginning.

Week 15 is the end of the regular season. There are just two games scheduled for Saturday, one we can handicap and one we'll take a s.w.a.g. at.  

This is the beginning of Bowl Season, and we'll attempt to analyze each contest and make an intelligent investment.  We live for these three weeks.  The posting schedule of Monday and Friday will be revised to the day before and the day after.  We have historically done pretty well at this time of year, and this year we need it, having ended the last three weeks with negatives.

This year debuted the Four Star system.  Two Gun Pete came up with the idea for the Four Star system, and it has worked.  Last year we picked 98 games and finished 48-48-2, about as profitable as a monkey flinging crap at random targets.  With the star system, we're +21 going into this weekend.  If you were playing them all along with us, you made money, and that's the purpose: fun and money. 

At the outset I said we'd stick to what we know, and for the most part we did that. What we've done correctly is easy to identify.  What we did wrong is partly the risk of the play and partly some bad decisions/habits.  Lessons learned:

1.  Don't fall in love with any team. 

We played some teams too much on reputation and not on current performance, kind of like the disclaimer that comes after the investment ads - past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Early LSU is an example.

2.  Be critical of the oddsmakers' choices; their job is to create action. 

Early season Texas and Penn State are examples of what I'm talking about.  They couldn't cover anything, so adjust.

3.  Critique your own trends. 

Big Mike pointed out that we were almost always betting favorites, true dat.  It cost us some money, all the way to the end (Texas v. Nebraska, case in point).

4.  Realize what you do well and do it. 

We do well with over/under plays,and we didn't play them frequently enough.  No excuse, just screwed up.

5.  Don't bet parlays based on initials, states, haircuts or mascots. 

We didn't publish any of them, but we played 'em, and they all lost.

6.  Don't bet it 'cause you want to make it happen

e.g.: Indiana sucked, and we couldn't make them not suck, despite betting on them and feeling bad for Bill Lynch.

7. Never

8. Never

 9. EVER

10.  ...bet on Notre Dame.

Never. 

Brian Kelly is going to abandon his 12-0, once in a lifetime Cincinatti Bearcats to go get his ass kicked in South Bend.  He and USB deserve each other. 

Brian Kelly : just another reason to hate Notre Dame.

We have two bets  one bet to make.

*Army @ Navy UNDER 41 1/2
Army's not too strong, and Navy played its best game a few months back against Ohio State.  Let's take our own advice and play O/U.  The weekend weather isn't likely to be too nice, either, suggesting tough playing conditions that can keep the scoring down.

The other game is Montana and Applachian State.  There's was no line, i.e. another lesson.  Stick with what you know, and nobody knows what's going to happen when these two lightly followed teams with their gaudy records square off.  Save your money for next week and enjoy Army/Navy.

Proverbs and Point Spreads

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.

For want of a shoe the horse was lost.

For want of a horse the rider was lost.

For want of a rider the battle was lost.

For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.

And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

There was no point spread to deal with when that proverb was penned.

Our investments weren't all that closely decided, but it was a Saturday thrillfest that featured the thinnest margins of victory and defeat.  One point differences made Texas and Cincinatti winners and the Illini a loser this day.  We at Four Star Football were down for a staggering third consecutive week.

'Bama beat up the Gators on Saturday afternoon, how 'bout that?  Florida looked overmatched, as the red shirts just kept coming all day long.  It was a great defensive performance by the Tide, and Florida appeared bewildered.  I admired the job that Alabama did, even as it cost me my Four Star Preseason wager, said wager being another SEC championship for Florida. Simply a great job by the new #1!

**** TEXAS -14 @ NEBRASKA LOSE
FINAL : TEXAS 13, NEBRASKA 12

When I was in college, I worked nights on the loading docks at the big UPS package sorting facility on Jefferson Street in Chicago.  It was an atmosphere that is best described in polite company as ribald.   One of my co-workers, a rotund, jovial black guy whose first name was Curtis and whose last name is somewhere in the many years between then and now, would prattle on, all night, every night, in a loud, bell clear voice, about whatever was on his mind, frequently repeating himself in a sing-song fashion. One of his favorites, voiced randomly, was 'you know what the people say, every dog has got his day'.  From all those years ago, Curtis' voice rang out in my mind, singing about the dogs,  around mid fourth quarter of this game Saturday night.  It had become evident early in the fourth quarter that we were not going to get a cover from the Longhorns. Nebraska brought an absolutely voracious, smothering defense to the Big 12 Championship game in Dallas.  Colt McCoy, Heismann Candidate, became Colt McCoy, run for your life or get thrown to the turf like a rag doll.  With Nebraska ahead and time running out, Colt McCoy rolled right and wasted precious seconds before throwing the ball away.  It required an official review to determine that there was one tick left on the clock, time enough for a 46 yard field goal attempt.  With a berth in the BCS on the line, Texas kicker Hunter Lawrence ascended to his 15 minutes of fame and knocked it through the wickets for a game winner and a trip to Pasadena.  It will have to be another day for underdog Nebraska, whose play was absolutely valiant, and a lifetime of second guessing for the Nebraska kicker whose out of bounds kickoff set in motion the events that brought about the dramatic finish. 
***CINCINNATTI -1 @ PITTSBURGH  PUSH
FINAL : CINCINNATTI 38, PITTSBURGH 37
This was like the football version of a heavyweight championship fight, last man standing.  These two teams pounded each other mercilessly in chilly Pittsburgh as the snow fell throughout.  It looked like Pitt had put Cinci away in the first half when lame blocking effort by the Bearcats on a punt set up an short Pitt TD.  On the ensuing kickoff , a return for a TD by Mardy Gilyard reinvigorated the Bearcats. Gilyard had 230 yards of kick returns by the early part of Q4, plus a long TD catch. It came down to a missed extra point by Pitt and a thrilling comeback--the kind of comeback by which champions are measured-to give Cincinnatti the win and a perfect 12-0 for the year.  Two Gun is in the habit of reminding me that the LVSC has some of the best minds in the world, and they showed it again, perfectly handicapping this one.
**FRESNO STATE @ ILLINOIS OVER 59 1/2  WINNER
FINAL 105 POINTS
They put up 49 points by halftime!  Fresno State has traveled over 23,000 miles this year to play games in 5 of the 6 U.S. time zones.  That has nothing to do with the outcome, but I found it interesting when they flashed it on the screen. This one paid off in the third quarter and kept on running, eventually breaking 100.  Very entertaining, as long as you're not a big fan of defense, and for this wager we surely were not.
*FRESNO STATE +3 @ ILLINOIS WINNER
I expected the Illini to play well enough to lose, and they did.  The final play hung the "L": a 2 point conversion by Fresno State that was batted back into the enormous paws of a behemoth offensive lineman who toppled across the goal line like a felled giant oak for the winning margin with :02 on the clock. Alternate, optional analogy to the giant oak: "dropped like the Desperate Housewives extortionist who was hit by the airplane on Wisteria Lane". For the record, Juice's final desperation pass was intercepted, a poingnant punctuation mark to a sad season for Illinois.

PS:  While this space is dedicated to the successful pursuit of the art and science of wagering on college football, it is no secret that when it's time to cheer, we are a Purple House.  It is great news for 'Cat Nation (yes, there is one, and it is growing, and you are all invited to jump on the bandwagon, good seats still available) that Northwestern has accepted an invitation to play on New Year's Day in Tampa in the Outback Bowl.  Go 'Cats!
PPS: Listening to Lou Holtz (who was on the selection show on ESPN Sunday night) gets harder the more you listen.  Last night's lishpfesht featured this gem, offered in re the Georgia Tech option offense facing the excellent Iowa defense : "they never see the option in the Big Ten...Iowa is going to be amazed when they see it". 

What a dope.

Did You Ever Have to Make Up Your Mind?

This was the toughest week so far this year to make selections.  I viewed and reviewed the matchups and spreads. I read. I researched.  Two Gun and I held a teleconference.  It finally came down to "just do it".
The handicappers are so good to start with, and they have become so much better now than they were at the start of the season, that finding the mismatches and opportunities is an extraordinary challenge.  If you have watched our last two weeks' performances, it was no cakewalk to start.

The accoumpanying video offers a lyrical correlation. It has no compelling imagery, so don't watch, just listen.




You watched anyway, didn't you?

**** TEXAS -14 @ NEBRASKA

7:00 pm Saturday, ABC

The Longhorns are my preseason selection to unseat Florida as National Champions.  The early part of their season was challenging, as they covered nothing. That got me to worrying.  Watching their performances of the last few weeks have gone a long way to make me feel like Texas can pull it off. Next step is Nebraska.
***CINCINNATTI -1 @ PITTSBURGH
11:00 am Saturday, ABC
Back and forth, back and forth I went. Cinci can't go 12-0, can they, with all the distractions of their coach snuggling up with USB?  Pitt, very, very good, but doesn't win the big ones.  Cinci hasn't played all that strong of a schedule.  Pitt is beat up from last week's game against WVa.  My choice came down to the leadership and confidence of the QB tandem from Cincinatti, Tony Pike and Zach Collaros, a senior and a freshman.  Pike broke his arm, had it screwed together and has come back and played exceptionally well.  While he was gone, Collaros put up nice, big numbers.  Verdict: Cincinnatti goes 12-0.
**FRESNO STATE @ ILLINOIS OVER 59 1/2
11:30 Saturday, BTN

Illinois has had a disaster of a season. The Illini played respectably against Cincinatti last weekend, though they never seemed to be a real threat to win.  Fresno State has put together a very nice season despite toiling in relative anonymity. Three of their losses were good showings against very tough teams. I think they're both going to score some points, enough to go over. 
*FRESNO STATE +3 @ ILLINOIS
We'll take the points and assume that Illinois plays well enough to lose again. This invites a nice little parlay wager to make it interesting.


A slide show of college football coaches who got big $$$$ to go away, click here.

The Bowl Selection show is on ESPN at 7:00 Sunday night.