I Love My Big TV

There are three games on the opening weekend schedule that we’ve chosen not to spend on, but they are worth a look nonetheless. They’re matchups that may show us in a couple of matchups how accurate the preseason evaluations are and in the other how much progress a new coach has made with a program in turmoil.

Oregon @ Boise St –5.0
Thursday, September 3 @ 9:15 on ESPN
Here’s a number puzzle. These teams have equal and opposite rankings. Boise St is #14 in one poll (AP) and #16 in the other (USA Today). Oregon is #16 in the AP and #14 in USA Today. By the way, Georgia Tech is in between them in both polls. The over/under is 63 ½ , so expect some fireworks. The opening line on this was 5 ½ , so the world is showing some confidence in the Ducks. Both teams have historically been very entertaining, so it should be worth staying up late to watch this one. You weren't going to get much done on Friday, anyway.

Western Michigan @ Michigan –11
Saturday, September 5 @ 2:30 on ABC
This is really, really interesting as a matchup. It remains to be seen just how entertaining the game will be. These two teams are ranked about evenly by the NY Times, a condition that would never have been foreseeable just a few years ago. Michigan is trying to stop the pain and bring back the glory, as players have transferred out of Ann Arbor like crazy since Rich Rodriguez arrived. Looks like it will be newbies for Blue throughout the offensive backfield. That’s challenging. They’ll operate behind an experienced and very talented O-line, so there will be opportunities. Western Michigan comes calling with a senior QB and veterans at the O-skill spots and across the defense. Michigan opened as a 12 point favorite and has been bet down to 11. The Big House stage is worth quite a bit to the home team, at least to start, but remember what little Appalachian State did here and the sound of 110,000 M-fans going silent. Oh, yeah, the second opponent for Michigan is Notre Dame…focus might be an issue for the Wolverines.

BYU @ Oklahoma –21 1/2
Saturday, September 5 @ 6:00 p.m. on ESPN
This is #20 @ #3. O/U is 68 ½ . BYU is VG, but OMG what a way to open their season, on the road at OK. This is must see TV as a coming attraction. If the line is totally accurate (probably not), we’re looking at a 45-23 game, advantage Sooners. If I were a betting man…

Pay No Attention to That Man Behind the Curtain

When Dorothy and the posse arrived at Emerald City, those were the famous words the Wizard cried out as Toto drew back the drapes. There's a similar situation here in the world of wagering. The Wizard is a company by the name of Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

LVSC sets the betting lines for an estimated 90% or more of the Vegas action. That's all sports, not just our corner of the world. LVSC operates from a small building in an industrial park that's just a few hundred yards from runway 25L at McCarran Airport in Las Vegas. The company has been around since 1982.

Look at their website, and surprise, there's a photo of the dozen guys who make the wagering world go 'round. No mysterious back office operation, no underground bunker filled with banks of servers. A group of guys, smiling, posing in their LVSC golf shirts. No Robert DeNiro, no Joe Pesci.

LVSC operates as a subsidiary of Cantor Gaming , acquired in November of last year.

Cantor Gaming is an affilate of Cantor Fitzgerald, a global financial services company.

Cantor Fitzgerald is one of a limited number of primary dealers who trade U.S. Government Securities directly with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

So, when you plunk down your cash on Slippery Rock v. Lehigh, you have, in a detached way, done a bit of business with one of the global financial movers and shakers.

There's no place like...

Future Props

It will be a few days more of waiting for the first week games, but there are future props waiting for us. These are season long wagers, so it will be months before we know the results, unless there’s a complete rupture on some issue. Here we go!

• One Star Future:The futures on the 2009-2010 BCS National Champ are pretty intriguing. Tim Tebow and the Gators are the chalk at 2/1. The Oklahoma Sooners follow at 9/2. The Texas Longhorns are 11/2, and the USC Trojans are 6/1. My choice: Texas, with 16 returning starters, including QB Colt McCoy. They’re focused, they were close last year and this year will be the charm.


• Two Star Future: This one falls in behind my One Star pick. Texas is 13/10 to win the Big 12 Championship Game. OK is 8/5. It's a long ride from here to the Rose Bowl, and this will be a stepping stone. The Longhorns gotta get the Big 12 if they’re going to get the Big 1.


• Three Star Future: The Northwestern Wildcats win total for over and under is 6 ½ . Yes, I have a Wildcat bias...at heart. This is money, and it's just as solid as my allegiance: bet the OVER. NU has four non-conference opponents scheduled, three of them (Towson, E Michigan and Syracuse) to open the season and Miami O as opponent #6. Those four are a 3 victory lock, and 4 wins isn’t an unreasonable expectation. Conference foes Minnesota, Indiana and Purdue promise W’s. The NU regular season has Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin as the final three games, all winnable. A 7 win year is good for three stars.


• Four Star Future: Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators are a prohibitive favorite to win the SEC, sitting now at 1 / 2 . Keep TT healthy and this one looks like a lock. Normally, I'd stay away from a 1/2, but we're going four months out. Take the sure thing for a little payback.

So, there are our future props. The grades won't come back on that exam for a few months, but that's the way we're starting out. Punch up your internet casinos now and take it to the bank later.

Preseason Champs (and an Anti Rant)

All that's left to do is play the games.

The guys who make a living at our hobby have put their numbers together, and they're really interesting. Here's some highlights.

The preseason national champs story might be titled "Round Up the Usual Suspects":

• Florida is the chalk for a national championship, sitting at 2:1 right now,
• followed by the Sooners of OK at 9:2.
• Texas is 11:2, and
• Pete Carroll's Trojans are 6:1.

If we try to infer relative strength from the national championship odds, the Big 10 looks like this:

Ohio State at 12:1 for a national championship, then Penn State at 30:1, then State of Confusion. Seven more Big 10 teams are individually priced as national champion wagers:

• Michigan State 75:1
• Illinois 75:1
• Iowa 100:1
• Wisconsin 100:1
• Michigan 150:1
• Minnesota 150:1
• Purdue 150:1

Indiana and Northwestern are omitted; they are included in who you get if you choose "the field", i.e everybody who's not individually priced. Most appraisals have Purdue and Indiana as the only two in the conference who have no bowl prospect, so why would Indiana be priced as superior to Purdue? Northwestern is generally expected to be about mid-pack in the conference, but their 40:1 price would appear to indicate that they are superior to the rest of the Big 10 pack, and that's not so.

The answer to both riddles appears to be volume. Nobody cares about Indiana, and NU has a small alumni base, hence a there's not going to be a lot of money going their way. The others are relatively large state schools who will attract some play out of a sense of loyalty. So after you get past the first two, there's no correlation between national championship odds and expected conference rank.

The 12th team in the Big Ten is a great example of marketing. Notre Dame, is 30:1 to win the national title. This is the oddsmakers selling what the people --the loyal fan base--want to buy. ND has no realistic chance to win a national championship, but sports a sufficiently attractive price point to attract some dreamers and incense some loyalists. It's kind of like bass fishing: attract 'em or make 'em mad, just make 'em hit the lure.

Elsewhere, favorites for some of the conferences:

• in the ACC it's Virgina Tech, followed by Clemson and Florida State.
• The Big 12 has Texas at the top, with the Sooners right behind them.
• The SEC has Florida as the prohibitive favorite at 1:2, with Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss a pick 'em to follow.

Next time, my future wagers. This waiting game is madness.

____________

Off topic: Brett Fahhhrrrrve, why the outcry over Brett Fahhhrrrrve? Rick Telander may be getting a bit bitchy as he ages; did you read his Wednesday missive? "How can the Vikings believe anything he says?"!!!! Sports nomad, self centered, unfair to Thieves and Scoundrels Local and the other MN QB's...give it a rest! It wasn't just Telander, there were legions of scribes acrosse the land throwing back their noggins, clawing at the heavens and wailing about what a scourge on the land St. Brett has become.

The NFL is a big business, a collection of little businesses bound together to exhibit behemoths beating the tar out of each other on a weekly basis on a television near you. The little businesses go out and hire guys to beat on the other guys and then hire more guys when the old guys break. They all do it for one reason...money! No surprise here, so why is St. Brett being taken to task for changing his mind and renting his battered 40 year old carcass to a willing bidder?

By the way, Fahhhrrrrve's college coach wanted him to play DB. The team that picked him for the pros was none other than the Atlanta Falcons, for whom he threw a grand total of four passes before being handed a ticket north. The Packers, criiiiminy pete and ya hey, could have kept him up in the hinterlands and didn't. The Jets didn't fold up when he left NY.

Let's overlook that Fahhhrrrrve looks funny with that big white Viking horn on the side of his helmet. If he helps MN win, all the naysayers will be rummaging through their thesauruses to find new and higher levels of prosaic praise.

If not, well, he still gets to keep the money.

Modest Expectations and Big Belt Buckles

If you're a fan of Washington State football, you're going to have more happy endings this fall. The Cougars will win 3 times this year (one more than last year); so say the oddsmakers. Sales of Cougar Helmet-lamps should skyrocket. The rest of the state can celebrate, as the Washington Huskies are predicted to win 4..and that's 4 more than 2008. Here are some over & unders for 2009 victory totals (last year in parentheses):

• Vandy's O/U is 4.5 (6 last year). So much for their resurgence. The Louisville Cardinals get 5 (same as '08), ho-hum. Cool uniforms, though. Stanford (5-7) and Purdue (4-8)are both 5.5, and they're probably both unders. Louisville= Cardinals. Stanford= the Cardinal. Just sayin'.


• Michigan (3-9)and Minnesota (7-5) come out at 6, so they both need to get fat on their non-conference opponents. Big 10 victories are going to be tough to come by, though I'm looking at them both as a push at 6.


• Missouri (9-3) and Northwestern (9-4) put on a great show at the Alamo Bowl, and they're both 6.5. Mizzou is an under, NU will be over. Navy (8-4) gets a 7 win prediction, and that sounds right. Last season, recall that Navy snapped their streak against ND, and what a great day that was for the Middies!


• Wisconsin (7-5) is 7.5 and will be under, Illinois (5-7) is 8 gotta be an under, Iowa (8-4) is 8 push. Notre Dame (6-6) is 8.5 and probably an under, the Cal Bears (8-4) post 9 and that's a push. That group of five teams includes four of my least favorite coaches, and I don't know who's in charge at Cal.


• Alabama (12-1), Penn State (11-1), Ohio State (10-2), and Oklahoma (12-1) O/U's are 9.5. Over for all. I love the Sooner Schooner. Coolest mascot in football.


• USC = 10. Love them Trojans (11-1)and the best fight song in college football. Push.


• Texas = 10.5 (11-1). Over. Hook 'em Horns! I once led a pod of drunken Texas coeds in a wobbling parade and enthusiastic rendition of The Eyes of Texas on a beach in Cancun while my wife sat waiting in the boat. The boat driver was bleeding and pretty drunk, too, and there's a lot of details behind the story. Hook 'em Horns! Click here for big team belt buckles, pard.


• Boise State (12-0) = 10.5. Blue field still hurts my TV eyes. Over.


• Florida (12-1), finally. 11. Over...and out.
  
  Remember, it's over or under. House wins a push, so play the 1/2's and back away from even numbers.

PS: Two Gun Pete invoked his magic formula and we booked a pair of winners on Saturday night in NFL preseason. These practice games are usually verboten for wagering because the starters spend a lot of time as spectators, but we play 2 select games each year...and win. No more NFL bets, take the money and leave.

Strike While the Iron's Hot

The oddsmakers started letting the numbers fly earlier this week, making it necessary to rearrange the orderly selection process that I had planned. The change is required because Week 1 is all about exploitation, and time is of the essence. Witness:


**** Louisiana Monroe @ Texas -36
Shop around, Two Gun, and get this for us at 36. That's the price at which it opened, and I'm hoping that the offshore houses haven't caught up with Vegas, where they're stretching it out quickly. The Warhawks of Louisiana Monroe are destined to become a footnote in what can be a historic year for Texas, and Mack Brown is probably going to hang 60 on them to start. Margin of victory can translate into rankings. Sorry, Warhawks, it's just business.

***Akron @ Penn State -26.5
Joe Paterno is not going to live forever. It just seems that way. The Akron Zips are being brought to Happy Valley as the opening victim in PSU's drive to unseat Ohio State. Joe speaks so kindly of his victims...after his boys have pounded them senseless. This one should be covered by halftime.

**Maryland Terrapins @ Cal Golden Bears -20.5
Run, Two Gun, run, 'cause I saw this open as low as 15!!! If you can get it anywhere under the current price it's gold. The Terps are good, but the Bears will maul their opening day opponents.

* LSU -15 @ Washington
The Tigers are opening on the road against a Washington team that is improved but still not very good. Take LSU and lay 15 now, as Nick Saban will want to put a beat down on the Huskies to make sure nobody forgets there are other teams in the SEC.

There are some games with no published line, games at which I hoped to have an opportunity, e.g. Wofford @ SoFlorida and Youngstown @ Pitt. They're apparently too grand of a mismatch to publish. Too bad for us! Some of the stuff that I'm looking for will probably surface somewhere with a spread, but these four look plenty hot, and the old saw applies...strike while the iron's hot.
*****************
PS: Two Gun jumped on this in his pre-publication review, and our actual spreads turned out as follows

• Texas -40
• Penn State -27 1/2
• Cal -21
• LSU -16

Big numbers, and now a long wait for prove-up.

PPS: I brain cramped and referred to Les Miles as Nick Saban. Sorry...

Week One Candidates

I've narrowed down the first weekend slate a little bit. Remember, the idea here, particularly at the start of the season, is to find the matchups that look sure, surer, surest, and surest-est. The Vegas (click to experience the rush of Vegas night life, ooooh!) line is going to be set and reset to keep the cash flowing. We're looking for teams that are going to outperform expectations. Without a published line to evaluate, I'm guessing at what's going to meet our criteria. Here's eight matchups:

Central Arkansas @ Hawaii--the Rainbows make a living bringing mainlanders to the Islands. What's more mainland than Conway, Arkansas?

Montana State University @ Michigan State University--Michigan State has been improving the last couple seasons, and Montana State is...the other MSU. To give you and idea of the difference between these two, Montana State will return home to play powerhouse Dixie State the following weekend.

Navy @ Ohio State--Tressel's crew will win. The size of the spread will tell us if there's any stars to spend.

Akron @ Penn State--Joe Paterno is back for his 99th season as head coach, and the Zips will be the first victim in Happy Valley. We frequently back the Zips, but this one is a step up in class beyond their ability.

Charleston Southern @ Florida--we'll know when the spread comes out, but this one looks like it could garner the four stars for the first week. Charleston Southern?

Wofford @ South Florida--not to be outdone, the Bulls are bringing Wofford to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, a pretty substantial difference from their little home field. I'm seeing stars here, and Wofford will, too.

Youngstown State @ Pittsburgh--we've been up and down with Dave Wannstedt's Pitt Panthers. Youngstown State is just here for a cup of coffee, then it's back to Ohio.

Western Michigan @ Michigan--Rich Rod needs the Wolverines to perform in order to appease a cranky fan base, still grumpy in the wake of last year's worst ever record. Western Michigan fields a pretty darn good football team. I am way eager to see the line on this one.

Spreads will be out shortly. Can't wait!

Equal Opportunity

Waiting for the opening week of action, I wonder how many women bet on football? Or bet on sports in general?

The first response from most guys is likely to be "none". I think the reality is that there are plenty of women plunking down some cash on games, either directly or through a male counterpart.

At this juncture, you are asking (if I have properly presented the proposition) "why do you so think, your authorship?"

I first present the visual evidence of Wonder Woman, standing victorious over the disembodied but still helmeted skull of her bookie in pre-internet days.

If that is not sufficiently persuasive, allow me to present the cases of two real life wagering examples. First, Mrs. PFOS. While she will deny this, indeed, she will likely vehemently deny this as she reads it, the fact is that she has wagered her share over the years, albeit primarily on NASCAR. That she displayed little aptitude for profitable wagering, primarily due to an unwavering loyalty to Dale Jarrett and Kenny Wallace, wagering on the one long after Jarrett's skills were eroded and the other based on the fact that Wallace is entertaining to listen to, did nothing to diminish the zeal Mrs. PFOS displayed in committing her (common law) cash.

I just invented that term, common law cash, feel free to use it.

Back at my proposition, Mrs. PFOS is frequently in my company and appears genuinely interested when I evaluate football and auto wagering results ( I would hate to think that she's been faking it all these years), and she is an inveterate Triple Crown bettor.

Case 2, your honor, involves some of the women in Two Gun Pete's life. Lady Two Gun has good naturedly assailed my character for years now, implying that it is I who am in some way responsible for showing Two Gun the wayward path of the wagering life. Yet I know that she is supportive of Two Gun's efforts, having been the gracious hostess of countless Sunday afternoon soirees at which a contest holding a financial implication was the joint main event, along with dinner. Further, her highly successful offspring, a woman of advanced letters, no less, has also had a hand in furthering the nefarious enterprise in which her father and his father before him (and with him, and with me, for that matter) has spent many an excited and profit bearing moment.

Now, while my sample size is too small to scientifically conclude that I am correct, even were the case to be heard on my home court in County Crook, it is compelling that these women, being of sound minds and bodies, have a hand in the games. So, if they are partaking, so are many of the favored gender.

I would like to hear from the rest of the planet on this matter.

That is all.

*** *** ***

Check out this ESPN.com poll. Be sure to mouse over the individual states to see how they voted.

Looking to Week 1

There used to be a game in mid August called the Kickoff Classic, and one called the Pigskin Classic. They're history, gone. I saw Gary Barnett's Northwestern Wildcats beat Oklahoma 24-0 in the 1997 Pigskin Classic at Soldier Field. Great time.

The first game of the 2009 season is scheduled for Thursday, August 27, and it looks like a pass for us. Quincy College visits Indiana State. It's the only game of that calendar week . It's someone you know (barely, in this case) Indiana State, tuning up as the host against someone who is a prohibitive and relatively obscure underdog, D2 school Quincy. It's tough to figure how far this spread ought to be.

Week 1 gets rolling for real the following Thursday, September 3. There's a big selection of games to pick from, and they largely follow the "bring in a tomato can" (click for link) philosophy. There are a couple of high interest games, interesting from a competitive and entertainment standpoint, as opposed to what we're looking for--blowouts that beat the snot out of the spread. The entertainment specials include the Oregon Ducks visiting the blue turf of Boise State, the Stanford Cardinal heading up to Washington State, and on Labor Day night the Hurricanes of Miami square off against the Florida State Seminoles (that's their stadium at the right) in an intrastate battle. All great entertainment, but we won't be putting any cash up on these. There's some great mismatch opportunities for us to start.

Time to start looking through some numbers. For starters, take a look at 2008's final numbers (click to view), courtesy of Vegas Insider. Like the disclaimer on the investment commercials, past results are no guarantee of future performance. This worksheet will give you tons of information to ponder.

Get your butt groove on the couch, there are games Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday and Monday.

We have plenty of time to work on these. That starts next week.