Thursday, August 13, 2009

Strike While the Iron's Hot

The oddsmakers started letting the numbers fly earlier this week, making it necessary to rearrange the orderly selection process that I had planned. The change is required because Week 1 is all about exploitation, and time is of the essence. Witness:


**** Louisiana Monroe @ Texas -36
Shop around, Two Gun, and get this for us at 36. That's the price at which it opened, and I'm hoping that the offshore houses haven't caught up with Vegas, where they're stretching it out quickly. The Warhawks of Louisiana Monroe are destined to become a footnote in what can be a historic year for Texas, and Mack Brown is probably going to hang 60 on them to start. Margin of victory can translate into rankings. Sorry, Warhawks, it's just business.

***Akron @ Penn State -26.5
Joe Paterno is not going to live forever. It just seems that way. The Akron Zips are being brought to Happy Valley as the opening victim in PSU's drive to unseat Ohio State. Joe speaks so kindly of his victims...after his boys have pounded them senseless. This one should be covered by halftime.

**Maryland Terrapins @ Cal Golden Bears -20.5
Run, Two Gun, run, 'cause I saw this open as low as 15!!! If you can get it anywhere under the current price it's gold. The Terps are good, but the Bears will maul their opening day opponents.

* LSU -15 @ Washington
The Tigers are opening on the road against a Washington team that is improved but still not very good. Take LSU and lay 15 now, as Nick Saban will want to put a beat down on the Huskies to make sure nobody forgets there are other teams in the SEC.

There are some games with no published line, games at which I hoped to have an opportunity, e.g. Wofford @ SoFlorida and Youngstown @ Pitt. They're apparently too grand of a mismatch to publish. Too bad for us! Some of the stuff that I'm looking for will probably surface somewhere with a spread, but these four look plenty hot, and the old saw applies...strike while the iron's hot.
*****************
PS: Two Gun jumped on this in his pre-publication review, and our actual spreads turned out as follows
  • Texas -40
  • Penn State -27 1/2
  • Cal -21
  • LSU -16

Big numbers, and now a long wait for prove-up.

PPS: I brain cramped and referred to Les Miles as Nick Saban. Sorry...

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