Thursday, October 6, 2011

Mercenary Weekend

First things first.  Happy Birthday, Tyler!

This business of betting on football can become pretty maddening.  Sitting at dead even after five weeks is no fun, though it's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, that is to say better than being negative.  TwoGun is fond of reminding that the bookmakers are reeeeealy good at what they do, and he is reeeealy correct.  He pointed out that after 4 weeks, the dogs v. favorites and overs v. unders was pretty close to a dead heat.  The linesetters are doing their job very well, now we just gotta do ours.  So, today, we blast away on some teams that are not our faves, but look like they'll make us some money.

Interesting concept, making money.

****  ILLINOIS -16 1/2 @ INDIANA
Saturday 1:30 on BTN
Unsubstantiated reports say that
there was a meeting at this
restaurant earlier this week that
had a major impact on the
setting of this week's wagers.
The meeting supposedly revolved
around a most excellent ghoulash.
It (the restaurant, not the ghoulash)
is not located in one of America's
most dangerous cities, click here
to see which burgs make the top 5.
Illinois is fresh off its final minute win in Champaign over Northwestern and the Illini have gone to 5-0 for the first time since the invention of cheap shots.  This is the rare air that we guard against, the  point at which a team is playing at a level to which they are unaccustomed, and thus run out of O2.  I don't think this is going to happen to Illinois for several reasons.  First, they're playing the Indiana Hoosiers, who have once again this year failed to improved their lot in life and appear destined to bumble along for the balance of the season.  Second, I think Nathan Scheelhaase is a very fine QB, and he is improving week to week, too bad for the Hoosiers.  Third, I think the Illini are sufficiently arrogant to sail through the minimal challenge of this week's opponent, i.e. too in love with themselves to run out of gas in Bloomington.  This game opened at IL -14, quickly climbed to -16 1/2 (where I got on), and then dropped back to -14.  Ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances, this is no place for the faint of heart.

***  MICHIGAN -7 @ NORTHWESTERN
Saturday 6:00 p.m. on BTN
November 4, 2000:  the Wolverines and Wildcats engaged in the single most entertaining football game that I have every seen, pounding each other senseless well into a Saturday night in Evanston until Northwestern prevailed 54-51.  This year will not feature that level of drama.  Michigan is rising, while Northwestern is clawing at keeping its year from turning into a washout.  It is a beast to bet against your favorite team, but I think there will be no storybook ending for the 'Cats this Saturday.   Too bad; might as well make a buck on it.  Here's the best of from back when, Brent Musberger is the perfect voice for this game.


** AIR FORCE +15 @ NOTRE DAME 
Saturday  2:30 on NBC
Big balls Saturday continues with a wager against the source of my great discontent, the USB.  If you've been around this space for any length of time, you grok my enmity for the University of South Bend, and you are familiar with my incredible track record of landing 180 degrees across from whatever the final result the Domers put up. It's time to conquer the curse.  The Air Force prevailed by a single point against Navy last week, while USB shellacked the Purdue Boilermakers.  My reasoning here is that the Air Force plays every minute, every play, and they will be able to keep this one close.  



*  OKLAHOMA -9 1/2 vs  TEXAS
Saturday  11:00 a.m. on ABC
This is the Red River Rivalry game, and 92,000 will bear witness in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.  Oklahoma has slid a little from its pinnacle ranking, while the 'Horns, unranked in the preseason, have climbed to #11.  Line 'em up and watch the boys pound each other, this is going to be fun.

In degenerate gambler news, last week some chap who invests at the same place that we do strung together a 22 team parlay (across 4 or 5 different sports) and turned $55 into $26K.  Not the biggest parlay $$ win ever, but the most teams ever put together in a parlay at that establishment.   To think that we spit the bit on 3 Dog Night and 4Star 4 Dogs. 
Props to Illinois' Coach Zook for acting quickly to publicly discipline his kick-in-the-balls linebacker.  It's a no-win situation for the already unlovable Illinois squad, and Zook made the right call...he had little choice, as the Big Ten gave its endorsement of the punishment.  Put another way, the conference said "if the coach hadn't, we would have".

That's the message for taoday's wagers...if we didn't, someone else would have.

3 comments:

NMC said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NMC said...

Happy almost Saturday. I have a little tangent for the week. As part of my anesthetist tour of duty, I was fortunate to get a rotation at Unv of Wisconsin, Madison. I've been here a week and this town is great and the campus is amazing. I toured today and hit up Camp Randall. I had no idea it was a civil war camp where ~70,000 men trained for duty. Lincoln was Commander in Chief for about 2.3 million, 91,000 were Wisconsin 'men' (Im sure there were some women too).

November 19 should be a great day- The Badgers will slice up your nemesis Illinois.

Doc

NMC said...

Speaking of Lincoln- I would have never guessed that Springfield, Il would be considered by some to be the 3rd most Dangerous US city- "The Springfield area ranks third on our list because it had 855 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 2010."